The European automotive landscape is facing unprecedented shifts. With the rapid acceleration of electrification mandates in the EU, Chinese car brands—once non-existent in the European market—are emerging as a formidable force.
At Top Tier Consultants, we've been closely monitoring these developments. In 2019, Chinese brands held almost no market share in Europe. Fast forward to 2024, and the picture looks very different. Backed by strong technology in electrification, Chinese automakers are capitalizing on this shift. TTC estimates suggest that Chinese OEMs could capture over 5% of the European market by 2030, and more than 8% by 2035.
This stands in sharp contrast to the North American market, where Japanese brands have long established themselves, and Chinese OEMs face a steep uphill battle. In Europe, however, the playing field is much more dynamic, and Chinese manufacturers are leveraging their EV expertise to make significant inroads.
However, a critical issue that could limit this expansion is manufacturing capacity. At least five large-scale factories would need to be built in Europe to hedge against potential trade wars, tariff barriers, and logistical challenges. Without this local infrastructure, Chinese OEMs may find themselves constrained by external factors, despite their technological advantages.
Will European incumbents rise to the challenge, or will they find themselves outmaneuvered by this new wave of competition? The answer may well hinge on who can best navigate the dual forces of technology and trade.
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